Observatory of the Advanced Intelligence Economy
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Featured
Fernand Gobet
Prof.Gobet is the world's foremost expert on expertise. As a Cognitive Scientist and Chess International Master, he developed the foundations of his theory in collaboration with Nobel Prize in Economics, Herbert A. Simon and Adriaan de DeGroot.
Percy Venegas
Practitioner and researcher in the fields Cognitive/Behavioral Finance, Quant Macro (Alternative Investments), Automated Intelligence/Evolving AI, Post Quantum & Decentralized Finance.
Analytic Philosophy of Financial Economics via Evolutionary Symbolic Regression
Applied Genetic Programming for Macroeconomics and Finance
Using merged financial and alternative data sources (web traffic panel data, ESG metrics, social network graphs, and blockchain activity), we explore both stock markets and alternative assets such as private equity and digital assets. We inquire about issues at the convergence of Economics, Behavioural Science and Philosophy of Science:
It has been established that non-experts (retail investors and internet crowds) can move financial markets. But, are all non-experts equal? Furthermore, can the meta-modelling process that is used to map semi-decentralized market participants' behaviour work as a quantitative estimation of creativity in scientific research?
Co-Evolution of Machine Cognition and Attention Markets
Attention flows are treated as the fabric of the macroeconomic construct, not simply as an "attentional bias" as in traditional behavioural economics. Since the evolutionary algorithms use inferential sensors (e.g., click stream panel data) akin to perception and show creativity akin to imagination, we approach the inquiry from a machine cognition standpoint.
We build on two novel areas of research: cognitive economics, which is defined as the economics of what is in people's minds (Kimball) and the attention market (both in the microeconomics sense, i.e platforms, and the broader attention economy sense). We investigate the feedback loop between algorithms and the crowd's tacit knowledge, implicit confidence, and belief dissensus as precursors for economic activity. The key methodological question is, how to quantify the asymmetry of trust across the parameter space?
The Political Economy of Extreme Risk and Uncertainty
We propose policy applications in emerging socio-economic systems and edge technologies such as evolving trading algorithms, distributed ledgers and quantum computing. In the context of the adoption of those technologies, the world is entering a new uncertainty regime where the probabilities of many outcomes are unknown, and concepts such as Existential Risk and the Precautionary Principle are applicable. However, a sizeable methodological obstacle lingers on: the world is a complex place where there are too many variables with multiple, changing associations and interactions — therefore, it is necessary to simplify the search space. In this respect, we use automated hypothesis generation to enunciate the questions that matter according to specific policy goals and government funding priorities.
We are proud to work with all our partners
Our combined expertise leverages the extensive experience and proven track record of partnerships required to explore our core areas of research:
Applied Genetic Programming for Macroeconomics and Finance
Co-Evolution of Machine Cognition and Attention Markets
The Political Economy of Extreme Risk and Uncertainty
Fernand Gobet
Fernand Gobet is a cognitive scientist and a cognitive psychologist, currently Professor of Cognitive Psychology at the London School of Economics. His research interests focus on the study of cognition, especially in the areas of cognitive architectures, perception, intuition, problem solving, learning and decision making. He has developed the CHREST cognitive architecture, an acronym for Chunk Hierarchy and REtrieval STructures, which is a complete architecture for the processes of learning and perception used by humans. He is a chess International Master, and played numerous times for the Swiss national team.
He was co-editor of the Swiss Chess Review from 1981 to 1989. His Elo rating is 2400.
Percy Venegas
Percy Venegas is the Founder and serves as Chief Scientist at Economy Monitor. Mr. Venegas conducts scholarly research and advises businesses and investors on Risk Forecasting and Automated Intelligence (Evolutionary Algorithms). He is a former Intel engineer, where he was the Chair of Statistical Process Control at a global automation and robotics group. He was in the Founding Advisory Board of the Social Venture Capital Conference, Latin America, Caribbean, and South Florida, and is currently a member of the New England Complex Systems Institute, the International Institute of Forecasters and, the International Association for Applied Economectrics. Mr. Venegas was awarded an MBA in International Business from MIB Trieste School of Management, Italy; attended the MIT Sloan China Program, Lingnan University College at Sun Yat-Sen University in Guangzhou; earned an Executive Master in Sustainable Development and Corporate Responsibility from EOI Business School, Campus Universidad Complutense de Madrid; completed the Artificial Intelligence Programme at the Said Business School, University of Oxford. Percy is currently engaged in initiatives at the Oxford Centre for Innovation to promote the responsible transition to Post-Quantum & Decentralized Artificial Intelligence.
